Some candidates are intimidated by the prospect of calculating their vote goals for their race. It is a necessary task so that candidates are not blindly going into precincts that don’t contribute much to vote totals or aren't that important. Or, worse, talking to all voters since we know not all registered voters actually vote.
You need only three pieces of data you should already have on-hand or can easily obtain from your local Supervisor of Elections’ office.
- 2010 number of registered voters broken down by precinct – enter into column “B”
- 2010 number of voters who actually voted (voter turnout) broken down by precinct – enter into column “C”
- 2014 number of registered voters broken down by precinct (this number will increase as time goes by, until the books close for the election) – enter into column “E”
Voila! Instant analysis that calculates your projected 2014 vote total by precinct!
To prevent risk of error I’ve protected all the fields except for where you need to enter. There’s enough room to calculate 20 precincts. Precinct 1 is completed as an example, so overwrite that data with your own.
If you need more fields please feel free to let me know and I’ll send you a modified spreadsheet.
To be sure, this doesn’t take into account partisan affiliation or go into a deep detailed analyses. This spreadsheet is geared to local races where party affiliation – though important – may not be as an important determining factor as the candidate him or herself or where the race is entirely non-partisan.
This spreadsheet will give you a good overall view of your district and provide you a hard-number goal to strive toward in your election. Use it to guide your strategy and plan.